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AI Sales Forecasting & Dynamic Pricing

You can't control the weather, but you can plan for it. The Minerva Forecast Engine analyzes hundreds of data points to predict your sales volume, allowing you to staff perfectly -- not too heavy, not too light.

How Predictions Work​

The engine combines three layers of data:

  1. Historical Trend: "We usually do $5k on Tuesday nights."
  2. Weather Impact: "Heavy rain is coming (-15% walk-in traffic)."
  3. Local Events: "Taylor Swift concert nearby (+25% late-night traffic)."

The result is a highly accurate Projected Sales number for every hour of the upcoming week.

Dynamic Menu Pricing​

New in Phase 4, the Smart Price Engine allows your menu prices to flex automatically based on demand, just like airlines or ride-shares, but with strict controls.

Configuring Rules​

Navigate to Settings > Dynamic Pricing:

  • Surge Pricing: Automatically increase prices by $1.00 on "High Demand" items during peak hours (e.g., Friday 7-9 PM).
  • Happy Hour: Automatically discount "Low Velocity" items during slumps (e.g., Tuesday 3-5 PM).
  • Guardrails (Critical):
    • Max Increase: "Never raise price more than 15%."
    • Floor Price: "Never drop below Food Cost + 10% Margin."

The Price Control Dashboard​

See exactly what is happening in real-time:

  • Active Rules: See which items are currently surged or discounted.
  • Override: Click "Reset to Base" to instantly cancel dynamic pricing if customers complain.
  • Audit Log: "Price for Spicy Burger changed from $12 to $13.50 at 6:00 PM (Reason: High Demand + Event)."

Using the Forecast Dashboard​

Navigate to Reports > Forecast:

1. The Confidence Chart​

You will see a graph with a shaded band:

  • Solid Line: The "Most Likely" sales outcome.
  • Shaded Area: The "Confidence Interval" (Best Case / Worst Case).
  • Use Case: If the band is wide, it means volatile conditions (e.g., uncertain hurricane path). Schedule flexible "On-Call" staff.

2. Event Modifiers​

The dashboard explicitly lists why the numbers might be weird:

  • event: "Downtown Parade (High Impact)"
  • weather: "Wind Advisory (Medium Impact)"

3. Actionable Insights​

The forecast doesn't just sit there; it powers other tools:

  • Smart Scheduling: Auto-generates shifts based on predicted covers.
  • Prep Lists: Tells the kitchen how much to prep (see AI Smart Order Guide).
  • Promotions: Suggests running a "Rainy Day Special" email campaign if traffic looks low.
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